Summary:
As of early September, the Atlanta Fed’s estimate for thirdquarter GDP stands at an astounding 5.6%. To put that into context, outside of the economic rebound following COVID lockdowns, we have not seen estimated quarterly growth that strong since 2011. While we do not expect the GDP print to remain that elevated upon its official release in October, it’s still likely the Fed will need to double their full-year GDP expectations during their September meeting. That would mark the second significant revision higher this year, following June’s increase from 0.4% to 1.0%.
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