The Federal Reserve’s decision to initiate its rate-cutting cycle with a 50 basis points (bps) reduction in the overnight rate, rather than the conventional 25 bps adjustment, was among the notable economic surprises during September. This outsized rate cut didn’t completely blindside market participants, but many were caught off guard since the possibility had only been 50% priced into markets. Additionally, the Fed indicated the potential for six more 25 bps rate cuts before the end of 2025 in its Summary of Economic Projections.
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