The narrative surrounding the labor market has taken a decisive turn following the release of the July non-farm payroll report. Prior to this, signs of cooling were evident, though not yet alarming. Year-to-date monthly payroll gains had peaked at 158,000, which was notable since there were five months of 200,000+ job growth in 2024. As of June, the three-month average job growth decelerated to a modest 150,000.
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