Outlooks – June 2025

The U.S. economy continues to navigate a complex landscape shaped by persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration. Nonfarm payrolls for May rose by 139,000, surpassing the consensus estimate of 125,000, though moderating from April’s revised 147,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, reflecting a resilient labor market in the face of significant economic uncertainty. However, consumer and business sentiment remain well below historical norms, driven by fears of tariff-driven price increases.

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