Recent news and data may hint at a potential shift in the U.S. economic landscape. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI), released in mid-February, rose 0.5% month-over-month, lifting the annual rate to 3%—the highest since mid-2024. The largest CPI increase in 16 months caught market participants off guard, as many expected year-over-year inflation to stabilize or ease due to favorable base effects. Rising costs in housing and services indicate prices are not cooling as expected, potentially keeping borrowing costs high if the Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady.
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