October payroll data faced notable distortions due to recent natural disasters, including Hurricanes Helene and Milton, coupled with various worker strikes. Economists projected median job growth at 100,000, with estimates ranging from gains of 180,000 to losses of 10,000 jobs. Actual figures revealed a modest gain of just 12,000 jobs, falling well short of expectations. Notably, net revisions to the prior two months’ data reduced previous job gains by 112,000, indicating September’s strong payroll figures may have been overstated – though further data will be needed to confirm this in the coming months. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, providing some stability amid otherwise negative signals.
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