Outlooks – October 2025

The U.S. economy continues to present a mixed picture as labor market weakness casts doubt, even as other indicators show resilience. The final revision to second-quarter GDP surged to 3.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from the initial data release in July, driven by stronger-than-expected consumer spending and business investment. This is the highest quarterly GDP figure since September 2023, a welcome change from the -0.6% contraction during the first quarter, largely due to tariff-induced import front loading.

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