Outlooks – July 2023 Edition


An economic surprise occurred in June, when the final revision for first-quarter GDP unexpectedly increased by 0.7%, to 2.0%. Combined with GDPNow forecasting 2.1% growth for the second quarter (as of early July) and the Fed’s projection of only 1%, growth for the full year seems less and less likely. Since the Fed is attempting to curb growth in order to slow inflation, they have made it very clear that despite holding the overnight rate steady in June, at least two more rate increases are expected to occur before year’s end.

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