Outlooks – May 2023 Edition


The Federal Reserve has telegraphed slow growth this year by forecasting a paltry 0.4% increase to GDP in their latest “Summary of Economic Projections.” While below-trend annual growth is not typically the objective, that type of result would likely gratify Fed officials since they have been transparent in their mission to tame inflation by slowing the economy and increasing the unemployment rate. By establishing the steepest start to a rate-hiking cycle in history, they have shown just how seriously they take that mission. However, nearly 14 months after their first hike, it appears the message has yet to reach the consumer.

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