Outlooks – November 2023 Edition


In one of the rare economic misfires of late, non-farm payrolls for October disappointed in nearly every facet. Monthly job growth fell 30k short of consensus at 150k and the unemployment rate was 0.1% higher than anticipated at 3.9%. While the labor force participation rate also decreased unexpectedly, the biggest downside surprise of the entire report was the two-month payroll net revision, which decreased prior employment totals by more than 100k jobs. These revisions erased the large positive employment gains that excited market participants just one month ago.

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